Google says the open web is shrinking faster than expected

Google finally admits the open web is in trouble

For months, Google insisted the internet was thriving, AI wasn’t hurting traffic, and its search engine sent more clicks to more sites than ever.

But in a recent court filing, the company admitted something stark: “the open web is already in rapid decline.”

This admission, buried in its defense against a Department of Justice lawsuit, stands in stark contrast to its previous public statements. For publishers already seeing traffic losses, it feels like confirmation of a reality they live daily.

A courtroom filing reveals the contradiction

The disclosure came in a filing related to the DOJ’s attempt to break up Google’s ad tech business. Google argued that forcing it to divest would not revive competition but “accelerate the decline of the open web.”

The company claimed publishers relying on open-web display ads would be harmed further. This statement is strikingly in contrast to what Google leaders have publicly said in interviews, where they painted search and the broader web as healthier than ever.

Google’s narrative has shifted depending on the audience

In public, Google executives have said things like “the web is thriving” and “traffic remains stable.” CEO Sundar Pichai insisted AI features send clicks to more publishers, not fewer.

Search lead Liz Reid stated that billions of clicks still flow to websites daily. Yet, in court, the tone shifted dramatically.

By claiming that the open web is rapidly declining, Google appears to be downplaying its power to avoid a structural breakdown of its ad business.

The filing points to market shifts beyond Google

Google’s lawyers said the open web is shrinking because of broad market forces. They pointed to the rise of connected TV advertising, retail media platforms like Amazon, and AI reshaping ad tech.

In this telling, advertisers are simply following audiences, and dollars flow toward walled gardens and streaming platforms at the expense of traditional display ads.

Whether a convenient legal strategy or a genuine assessment, it underlines how fast digital advertising is evolving away from the open web.

Google’s spokesperson tried to walk it back

After the filing drew attention, Google spokesperson Jackie Berté told The Verge the line was misinterpreted. She insisted the phrase “rapid decline” referred explicitly to “open-web display advertising,” not the web as a whole.

According to her, Google pointed out that budgets for formats like retail media and connected TV are growing at the expense of open-web ads.

However, the distinction hardly matters for many publishers; they still lose audience reach and advertising revenue.

Publishers see the admission as long overdue

For independent publishers and digital media outlets, the courtroom filing didn’t come as a surprise. Many have reported double-digit declines in search traffic over the past year, coinciding with algorithm changes and the rise of AI summaries in search results.

The difference is that Google has now said publicly what publishers have long argued privately: the economics of the open web are deteriorating. The company may blame market forces, but many believe its practices are central.

AI overviews are changing search behavior

One of the most contentious issues is Google’s AI Overviews, which place chatbot-like summaries at the top of search results.

A Pew Research study found users are significantly less likely to click links when AI summaries appear. In fact, “zero-click” searches, where users find their answer without visiting a site, have risen sharply.

For publishers, that means fewer pageviews, ad impressions, and revenue. Critics say Google’s products fundamentally reshape how users interact with the web.

Google insists traffic is holding steady

Despite publisher complaints, Google maintains that its search engine still sends billions of clicks daily. Liz Reid has argued that overall click volume is “relatively stable” compared to last year, while Nick Fox said the web is “thriving.”

Google claims its AI features surface more links, not fewer, giving smaller publishers visibility. However, many site owners argue that their traffic data tells a different story. The disconnect highlights how complicated measuring “health” of the web has become.

Reports show search traffic is declining worldwide

Outside Google, independent data suggests a different picture. Research from Similarweb, cited by The Economist, showed global search traffic in June was down 15% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, the share of zero-click searches on news websites jumped from 56% to 69% over the past year.

These numbers support what many publishers have been saying: while Google insists everything is stable, the open web’s slice of user attention is shrinking fast. And now, even Google has acknowledged it in court.

The DOJ trial raises the stakes for Google

The timing of Google’s admission matters. The DOJ is pushing to break up its advertising technology empire, arguing it monopolized the market for display ads.

By claiming the open web is already in decline, Google argues in court that breaking up its ad tech unit won’t restore competition but might accelerate decline.

That argument may be strategic, but it also forces Google to acknowledge structural weaknesses in its long-downplayed web advertising model.

Google’s ad dominance is at the heart of the case

Earlier this year, a U.S. judge found that Google illegally monopolized the ad server and exchange markets. The DOJ is now seeking structural remedies, possibly forcing the sale of those businesses.

Google insists this would destabilize the market further. However, critics argue that Google’s control has already harmed competition and weakened the open web.

For publishers, the case could determine whether they have a fighting chance in a digital economy increasingly dominated by closed ecosystems.

Publishers blame Google’s design choices

Critics say Google isn’t just a passive player in the decline of the open web. Keeping users on Google’s pages longer, whether through featured snippets, AI summaries, or product widgets, captures more engagement and ad dollars.

This creates a cycle where publishers produce content but see fewer returns, making it harder to sustain operations.

Many accuse Google of creating the conditions it now cites in court to avoid stricter penalties, calling its defense ironic and self-serving.

The rise of walled gardens is accelerating the decline

Another major shift is the explosion of advertising in walled gardens like Amazon, YouTube, and TikTok. These platforms control the user experience and the ads that run on them, making them highly attractive to marketers.

As budgets flow into these environments, open-web advertising, where publishers compete for impressions across millions of sites, loses ground.

Google is correct that connected TV and retail media are booming, but that shift spells shrinking opportunities for publishers relying on banner ads.

The open web is facing an existential threat

For decades, the open web relied on a straightforward exchange: publishers created content, search engines directed users to it, and advertising funded the system.

That model is now under strain from multiple directions: AI changing user behavior, platforms hoarding attention, and ad budgets migrating elsewhere.

When Google says the open web is in “rapid decline,” it highlights how precarious the situation has become. Publishers risk being sidelined in a fragmented, AI-driven internet without structural changes.

Regulators face difficult choices ahead

The DOJ’s remedies case forces regulators to decide whether breaking up Google’s ad business will help or hurt the open web. Google insists it would harm publishers by accelerating a decline already in motion.

Critics counter that Google’s dominance stifled innovation in the first place. Whatever the outcome, the trial will set important precedents for how governments tackle Big Tech power and whether they prioritize competition even if the web is already shifting away from openness.

At the same time, Google DeepMind’s CEO says AI aces the math olympiad but struggles with high school problems.

The future of the open web is uncertain

Even if courts impose remedies, the bigger question is whether the open web model can be saved. With user behavior shifting toward instant AI answers and ad spending pouring into closed ecosystems, the open web may never regain its old prominence.

Instead, it could evolve into a smaller but still vital ecosystem, serving niches like investigative journalism, independent voices, and specialized communities.

Whether that is sustainable at scale remains one of the internet’s most urgent questions.

Meanwhile, Google is preparing to shut out unverified apps from sideloading.

What do you think about Google’s statement that the open web is shrinking rapidly and creating difficulties for Google? Please share your thoughts and drop a comment.

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This slideshow was made with AI assistance and human editing.