Apple may finally overtake Samsung in phone sales after 14 years and here is why

Apple is finally close to taking the crown

Apple has spent most of the past decade in second place behind Samsung in global smartphone shipments, but new forecasts suggest that balance is about to shift.

Counterpoint Research expects Apple to edge into the lead in global smartphone shipments this year in its own tracking, ending what it counts as Samsung’s roughly fourteen-year run at the top.

It represents a symbolic shift that reflects bigger changes in how and why people choose their next smartphone.

Apple pulls ahead by a narrow margin in shipments

Industry analysts expect Apple to ship roughly 243 million iPhones this year, compared with about 235 million smartphones from Samsung. That would give Apple an estimated 19.4 percent share of the global market, just ahead of Samsung’s 18.7 percent.

Overall, smartphone shipments are expected to grow about 3.3 percent, and Apple is forecast to outpace that trend on its way to the top.

The iPhone 17 lineup hits the sweet spot

Apple’s latest iPhone 17 family has landed exactly where shoppers want it. Early data suggest that sales in the first weeks surpass those of the previous iPhone generation in key regions, including the United States and China.

A brighter, less reflective screen, better cameras, faster charging, and longer battery life all help make upgrading feel worthwhile, rather than optional, for many people considering a new phone.

A massive wave of upgrades is finally arriving

Millions of phones bought during the early pandemic years are now feeling old, with weaker batteries and slower performance. Analysts say this replacement cycle has reached an inflection point.

People who held onto their devices longer are now ready to switch, and many of them are choosing iPhones when they finally upgrade, creating a powerful surge in demand that is carrying Apple forward this year.

The second hand iPhone market is feeding future growth

Between 2023 and mid-2025, roughly 358 million used iPhones were resold worldwide, according to Counterpoint Research. Those refurbished devices often become someone’s first real step into the Apple ecosystem.

Once people become accustomed to iMessage, FaceTime, and the tight integration with other Apple products, they are far more likely to upgrade to a brand new iPhone later on.

Apple’s ecosystem gives it an edge over Samsung

Samsung makes excellent hardware, especially in displays and cameras, but Apple’s ecosystem advantage is hard to beat. iPhones, Macs, iPads, Apple Watch, and AirPods all work seamlessly together, and services like iCloud and Apple Music further enhance that convenience.

When it is time to upgrade, many users decide it is safer and easier to stay with what already works reliably.

Premium innovation keeps iPhones feeling aspirational

Apple has continued to push advances in its own processors, camera processing, and on-device intelligence. Features like smoother high-refresh screens, better low-light photos, and more intelligent battery management help the iPhone 17 line feel like a genuine step up.

In many markets, owning the latest iPhone is still seen as a status symbol, tempting some Android users to switch sides.

Pricing strategy makes upgrades feel less painful

Despite inflation, Apple managed to hold the starting price of the base iPhone 17 at the same level as the previous model in many regions.

Combining that with trade-in offers, carrier deals, and the option to sell older iPhones keeps the effective cost of upgrading under control. If you are comparing premium phones, the latest iPhone feels like a much easier choice.

Apple is gaining ground in key global markets

Apple’s newest phones are not just selling in the United States and Europe. Analysts report double-digit growth in key regions, such as China, even as competition there intensifies.

Meanwhile, Apple is steadily expanding in emerging markets with older models, financing plans, and refurbished devices. Each new iPhone sold into those markets strengthens Apple’s installed base for the next upgrade cycle.

Samsung is growing but faces tough competition

Samsung is not struggling; its shipments are still expected to rise this year, helped by strong Galaxy A series sales in emerging markets and solid demand for premium Galaxy S and foldable models.

The challenge is that growth is slower than Apple’s, and Chinese brands are squeezing Samsung hard in the low- and mid-range, limiting how quickly it can expand overall.

Future iPhone plans are aimed at a broader audience and a new format

Apple is widely rumored to be readying a more affordable iPhone 17e model and working on its first foldable iPhone for the coming years, though neither device has been officially confirmed.

That combination could challenge Samsung from two directions: by competing more directly in foldables and offering budget-conscious buyers a more attainable way to join the iPhone world without sacrificing too many features they care about.

Structural tailwinds could keep Apple ahead for years to come

Analysts say Apple’s momentum isn’t short-term; aging iPhones need upgrades, and second-hand models keep attracting new users around globally.

At the same time, recent tariff exemptions on smartphones, plus a partial easing of trade tensions, have reduced some pressure on Apple’s supply chain, further supporting the company’s momentum.

Together, those tailwinds could keep Apple in the lead in smartphone shipments well into the second half of the decade.

If you’d like to see how the competition stacks up, please take a look at how the Samsung Galaxy S25 Edge changed my mind after comparing it with the iPhone 16 Pro.

This changing leaderboard matters for everyday phone buyers

For you, this shift will not change how you use your phone tomorrow, but it says a lot about where the market is heading. Apple’s rise shows that tight ecosystems and long-lasting devices are beating pure hardware specs.

Samsung will have to respond with bolder innovation and better value, which could mean more interesting choices and features for everyone shopping next.

And if you’re curious about the hurdles Apple is facing next, you might want to see how its battle with Europe is intensifying as it pulls an iPhone feature from the EU.

What do you think about Apple overtaking Samsung in sales for the first time in 14 years? Please share your thoughts and drop a comment.

Read More From This Brand:

• Apple may ditch iPhone 19 to mark 20 years of iPhone
• Apple’s foldable iPhone may feature TouchID 2nm chip and crease free screen
• Samsung eyes 2025 for tri-fold phone launch

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This slideshow was made with AI assistance and human editing.